Identifying bottlenecks in the iron and folic acid supply chain in Bihar, India: a mixed-methods study

Background: Maternal anaemia prevalence in Bihar, India remains high despite government mandated iron supplementation targeting pregnant women. Inadequate supply has been identified as a potential barrier to iron and folic acid (IFA) receipt. Our study objective was to examine the government health system’s IFA supply and distribution system and identify bottlenecks contributing to insufficient IFA supply. Methods: Primary data collection was conducted in November 2011 and July 2012 across 8 districts in Bihar, India. A cross-sectional, observational, mixed methods approach was utilized. Auxiliary Nurse Midwives were surveyed on current IFA supply and practices. In-depth interviews (n = 59) were conducted with health workers at state, district, block, health sub-centre, and village levels. Results: Overall, 44% of Auxiliary Nurse Midwives were out of IFA stock. Stock levels and supply chain practices varied greatly across districts. Qualitative data revealed specific bottlenecks impacting IFA forecasting, procurement, storage, disposal, lack of personnel, and few training opportunities for key players in the supply chain. Conclusions: Inadequate IFA supply is a major constraint to the IFA supplementation program, the extent of which varies widely across districts. Improvements at all levels of infrastructure, practices, and effective monitoring will be critical to strengthen the IFA supply chain in Bihar

Making Nutrition Services Work for Socially Excluded Groups: Lessons from the Integrated Nutrition and Health Project

A relatively large proportion of India's underweight children belong to groups facing multiple disadvantages. Addressing child malnutrition among these communities is critical if India is to eliminate undernutrition and achieve the MDG goals. This article draws evidence from the Integrated Nutrition and Health Project II (INHP?II), a USAID funded project, implemented by CARE in India, to show how, by ensuring universal service coverage, a programme can enhance equity and inclusion. INHP?approaches such as: Nutrition and health days (NHD); prioritising home contacts; system strengthening; community participation; tracking left?out children; enhancing convergence and coverage of nutritional and health services, all help to improve nutritional outcomes among all sections of society, particularly socially excluded groups

A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.

BACKGROUND: The elimination programme for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India has seen great progress, with total cases decreasing by over 80% since 2010 and many blocks now reporting zero cases from year to year. Prompt diagnosis and treatment is critical to continue progress and avoid epidemics in the increasingly susceptible population. Short-term forecasts could be used to highlight anomalies in incidence and support health service logistics. The model which best fits the data is not necessarily most useful for prediction, yet little empirical work has been done to investigate the balance between fit and predictive performance. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed statistical models of monthly VL case counts at block level. By evaluating a set of randomly-generated models, we found that fit and one-month-ahead prediction were strongly correlated and that rolling updates to model parameters as data accrued were not crucial for accurate prediction. The final model incorporated auto-regression over four months, spatial correlation between neighbouring blocks, and seasonality. Ninety-four percent of 10-90% prediction intervals from this model captured the observed count during a 24-month test period. Comparison of one-, three- and four-month-ahead predictions from the final model fit demonstrated that a longer time horizon yielded only a small sacrifice in predictive power for the vast majority of blocks. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model developed is informed by routinely-collected surveillance data as it accumulates, and predictions are sufficiently accurate and precise to be useful. Such forecasts could, for example, be used to guide stock requirements for rapid diagnostic tests and drugs. More comprehensive data on factors thought to influence geographic variation in VL burden could be incorporated, and might better explain the heterogeneity between blocks and improve uniformity of predictive performance. Integration of the approach in the management of the VL programme would be an important step to ensuring continued successful control

Visceral leishmaniasis outbreaks in Bihar: community-level investigations in the context of elimination of kala-azar as a public health problem.

BACKGROUND: With visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence at its lowest level since the 1960s, increasing attention has turned to early detection and investigation of outbreaks. METHODS: Outbreak investigations were triggered by recognition of case clusters in the VL surveillance system established for the elimination program. Investigations included ascertainment of all VL cases by date of fever onset, household mapping and structured collection of risk factor data. RESULTS: VL outbreaks were investigated in 13 villages in 10 blocks of 7 districts. Data were collected for 20,670 individuals, of whom 272 were diagnosed with VL between 2012 and 2019. Risk was significantly higher among 10-19 year-olds and adults 35 or older compared to children younger than 10 years. Outbreak confirmation triggered vector control activities and heightened surveillance. VL cases strongly clustered in tolas (hamlets within villages) in which > 66% of residents self-identified as scheduled caste or scheduled tribe (SC/ST); 79.8% of VL cases occurred in SC/ST tolas whereas only 24.2% of the population resided in them. Other significant risk factors included being an unskilled non-agricultural laborer, migration for work in a brick kiln, living in a kuccha (mud brick) house, household crowding, habitually sleeping outside or on the ground, and open defecation. CONCLUSIONS: Our data highlight the importance of sensitive surveillance with triggers for case cluster detection and rapid, careful outbreak investigations to better respond to ongoing and new transmission. The strong association with SC/ST tolas suggests that efforts should focus on enhanced surveillance in these disadvantaged communities

Adaptation of a malaria surveillance system for use in a visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme.

Background: Successful public practice relies on generation and use of high-quality data. A data surveillance system (the Disease Data Management System [DDMS]) in use for malaria was adapted for use in the Indian visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme. Methods: A situational analysis identified the data flows in current use. Taxonomic trees for the vector of visceral leishmaniasis in India, Phlebotomus argentipes, were incorporated into the DDMS to allow entry of quality assurance and insecticide susceptibility data. A new quality assurance module was created to collate the concentration of DDT that was applied to walls during the indoor residual spraying (IRS) vector control programme. Results: The DDMS was implemented in Bihar State and used to collate and manage data from sentinel sites in eight districts. Quality assurance data showed that DDT was under-applied to walls during IRS; this, combined with insecticide susceptibility data showing widespread vector resistance to DDT prompted a national policy change to using compression pumps and alpha-cypermethrin insecticide for IRS. Conclusions: The adapted DDMS centralises programmatic data and enhances evidence-based decision making and active policy change. Moving forward, further modules of the system will be implemented, allowing extended data capture and streamlined transmission of key information to decision makers

Optimizing Village-Level Targeting of Active Case Detection to Support Visceral Leishmaniasis Elimination in India.

Background: India has made major progress in improving control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in recent years, in part through shortening the time infectious patients remain untreated. Active case detection decreases the time from VL onset to diagnosis and treatment, but requires substantial human resources. Targeting approaches are therefore essential to feasibility. Methods: We analyzed data from the Kala-azar Management Information System (KAMIS), using village-level VL cases over specific time intervals to predict risk in subsequent years. We also graphed the time between cases in villages and examined how these patterns track with village-level risk of additional cases across the range of cumulative village case-loads. Finally, we assessed the trade-off between ACD effort and yield. Results: In 2013, only 9.3% of all villages reported VL cases; this proportion shrank to 3.9% in 2019. Newly affected villages as a percentage of all affected villages decreased from 54.3% in 2014 to 23.5% in 2019, as more surveillance data accumulated and overall VL incidence declined. The risk of additional cases in a village increased with increasing cumulative incidence, reaching approximately 90% in villages with 12 cases and 100% in villages with 45 cases, but the vast majority of villages had small cumulative case numbers. The time-to-next-case decreased with increasing case-load. Using a 3-year window (2016-2018), a threshold of seven VL cases at the village level selects 329 villages and yields 23% of cases reported in 2019, while a threshold of three cases selects 1,241 villages and yields 46% of cases reported in 2019. Using a 6-year window increases both effort and yield. Conclusion: Decisions on targeting must consider the trade-off between number of villages targeted and yield and will depend upon the operational efficiencies of existing programs and the feasibility of specific ACD approaches. The maintenance of a sensitive, comprehensive VL surveillance system will be crucial to preventing future VL resurgence

Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models.

We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1-3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved

Impact of IRS: Four-years of entomological surveillance of the Indian Visceral Leishmaniases elimination programme

BACKGROUND In 2005, Bangladesh, India and Nepal agreed to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem. The approach to this was through improved case detection and treatment, and controlling transmission by the sand fly vector Phlebotomus argentipes, with indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Initially, India applied DDT with stirrup pumps for IRS, however, this did not reduce transmission. After 2015 onwards, the pyrethroid alpha-cypermethrin was applied with compression pumps, and entomological surveillance was initiated in 2016. METHODS Eight sentinel sites were established in the Indian states of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. IRS coverage was monitored by household survey, quality of insecticide application was measured by HPLC, presence and abundance of the VL vector was monitored by CDC light traps, insecticide resistance was measured with WHO diagnostic assays and case incidence was determined from the VL case register KAMIS. RESULTS Complete treatment of houses with IRS increased across all sites from 57% in 2016 to 70% of houses in 2019, rising to >80% if partial house IRS coverage is included (except West Bengal). The quality of insecticide application has improved compared to previous studies, average doses of insecticide on filters papers ranged from 1.52 times the target dose of 25mg/m2 alpha-cypermethrin in 2019 to 1.67 times in 2018. Resistance to DDT has continued to increase, but the vector was not resistant to carbamates, organophosphates or pyrethroids. The annual and seasonal abundance of P. argentipes declined between 2016 to 2019 with an overall infection rate of 0.03%. This was associated with a decline in VL incidence for the blocks represented by the sentinel sites from 1.16 per 10,000 population in 2016 to 0.51 per 10,000 in 2019. CONCLUSION Through effective case detection and management reducing the infection reservoirs for P. argentipes in the human population combined with IRS keeping P. argentipes abundance and infectivity low has reduced VL transmission. This combination of effective case management and vector control has now brought India within reach of the VL elimination targets

Development and Evaluation of Active Case Detection Methods to Support Visceral Leishmaniasis Elimination in India.

As India moves toward the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem, comprehensive timely case detection has become increasingly important, in order to reduce the period of infectivity and control outbreaks. During the 2000s, localized research studies suggested that a large percentage of VL cases were never reported in government data. However, assessments conducted from 2013 to 2015 indicated that 85% or more of confirmed cases were eventually captured and reported in surveillance data, albeit with significant delays before diagnosis. Based on methods developed during these assessments, the CARE India team evolved new strategies for active case detection (ACD), applicable at large scale while being sufficiently effective in reducing time to diagnosis. Active case searches are triggered by the report of a confirmed VL case, and comprise two major search mechanisms: 1) case identification based on the index case's knowledge of other known VL cases and searches in nearby houses (snowballing); and 2) sustained contact over time with a range of private providers, both formal and informal. Simultaneously, house-to-house searches were conducted in 142 villages of 47 blocks during this period. We analyzed data from 5030 VL patients reported in Bihar from January 2018 through July 2019. Of these 3033 were detected passively and 1997 via ACD (15 (0.8%) via house-to-house and 1982 (99.2%) by light touch ACD methods). We constructed multinomial logistic regression models comparing time intervals to diagnosis (30-59, 60-89 and ≥90 days with =90 days compared to the referent of <30 days for ACD vs PCD were 0.88, 0.56 and 0.42 respectively. These ACD strategies not only reduce time to diagnosis, and thus risk of transmission, but also ensure that there is a double check on the proportion of cases actually getting captured. Such a process can supplement passive case detection efforts that must go on, possibly perpetually, even after elimination as a public health problem is achieved

Epidemiologic Correlates of Mortality among Symptomatic Visceral Leishmaniasis Cases: Findings from Situation Assessment in High Endemic Foci in India - Fig 1

<p>Estimates of the cumulative survival probabilities (Kaplan-Meier estimates) of VL patients, from the time of diagnosis, stratified by the categories of: (A) age of the patient; (B) gender of the patient; (C) caste of the patient; (D) place from which VL treatment was received; (E) facility where VL was diagnosed; (F) interval between symptom onset and diagnosis; (G) type of drug used for VL treatment; and (H) completion of the course of VL treatment. Bihar, 2012–13. (N = 4925).</p